Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
King Green
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
30-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
35-18-1
W2
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Dober: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Green: 73 sig / 0 TD
Drew Dober
King Green
58
Sig strikes landed
66
139
Sig strikes attempted
116
64
Total strikes landed
80
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
90s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
19 fights · 11-7
Last 5
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
Blue corner
L1
King Green
35-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
19 fights · 10-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—