Main
Featherweight
Alex Caceres vs Julian Erosa
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Julian Erosa
34%
66%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
21-16
Career record
Δ 13 pp
32-14
L1
Current streak
W3
26
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Caceres: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Erosa: 10 sig / 0 TD
Alex Caceres
Julian Erosa
59
Sig strikes landed
62
124
Sig strikes attempted
139
72
Total strikes landed
75
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
82s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
26 fights · 14-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
Blue corner
W3
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
32-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—