Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Amir Albazi
Alessandro Costa
65%
35%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
W3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Albazi: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Costa: 17 sig / 0 TD
Amir Albazi
Alessandro Costa
38
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
68
53
Total strikes landed
40
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Amir Albazi
"The Prince"
18-3
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
Blue corner
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27