Main
Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan vs Damir Ismagulov
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Arman Tsarukyan
Damir Ismagulov
65%
35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
23-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-3
L1
Current streak
W5
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tsarukyan: 34 sig / 7 TD ·
Ismagulov: 36 sig / 0 TD
Arman Tsarukyan
Damir Ismagulov
51
Sig strikes landed
50
126
Sig strikes attempted
135
78
Total strikes landed
79
2.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
6.4
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
226s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
23-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
Blue corner
W5
Damir Ismagulov
"Qazaq"
25-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
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