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Main Middleweight

Jared Cannonier vs Sean Strickland

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jared Cannonier
Sean Strickland
16% 84%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
39
Age
Δ 7y
32
18-10
Career record
Δ 15 pp
31-8
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Cannonier: 141 sig / 0 TD · Strickland: 152 sig / 1 TD
Jared Cannonier
Sean Strickland
68
Sig strikes landed
90
161
Sig strikes attempted
187
70
Total strikes landed
92
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
39s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jared Cannonier

"The Killa Gorilla"
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
39
In our database 14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
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W UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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L UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1

Sean Strickland

31-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
L UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—