Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafa Garcia
Maheshate
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 5y
23
19-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 49 sig / 6 TD ·
Maheshate: 25 sig / 0 TD
Rafa Garcia
Maheshate
31
Sig strikes landed
33
81
Sig strikes attempted
70
47
Total strikes landed
40
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.0
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
218s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
Blue corner
W1
Maheshate
11-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—