Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Krzysztof Jotko
Brendan Allen
44%
56%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
25-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
27-7
W2
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jotko: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Allen: 3 sig / 1 TD
Krzysztof Jotko
Brendan Allen
35
Sig strikes landed
42
83
Sig strikes attempted
92
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
126s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Krzysztof Jotko
25-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
Blue corner
W2
Brendan Allen
"All In"
27-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—