Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Joaquim Silva
Jesse Ronson
65%
35%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
14-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-13
L2
Current streak
L4
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Silva: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Ronson: 39 sig / 0 TD
Joaquim Silva
Jesse Ronson
43
Sig strikes landed
45
106
Sig strikes attempted
96
52
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Joaquim Silva
"Netto BJJ"
14-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L4
Jesse Ronson
"The Body Snatcher"
21-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 0-4
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—