Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ilir Latifi
Aleksei Oleinik
5%
95%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
40
Age
Δ 5y
45
18-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
61-17-1
W1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Latifi: 38 sig / 3 TD ·
Oleinik: 28 sig / 0 TD
Ilir Latifi
Aleksei Oleinik
24
Sig strikes landed
26
45
Sig strikes attempted
45
41
Total strikes landed
43
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
217s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ilir Latifi
"The Sledgehammer"
18-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
Blue corner
W1
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—