Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
John Castaneda
Daniel Santos
61%
39%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
22-8-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
14-4
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Castaneda: 57 sig / 3 TD ·
Santos: 69 sig / 2 TD
John Castaneda
Daniel Santos
66
Sig strikes landed
51
143
Sig strikes attempted
170
85
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
68s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
22-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Daniel Santos
"Willycat"
14-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—