Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raoni Barcelos
Trevin Jones
82%
18%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
22-6
Career record
Δ 24 pp
13-11
L2
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barcelos: 73 sig / 2 TD ·
Jones: 11 sig / 0 TD
Raoni Barcelos
Trevin Jones
56
Sig strikes landed
42
97
Sig strikes attempted
96
90
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
136s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Raoni Barcelos
22-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
Blue corner
L2
Trevin Jones
"5 Star"
13-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—