Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Randy Brown
Francisco Trinaldo
64%
36%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 8"
70"
32
Age
Δ 12y
44
21-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
29-9
W3
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Trinaldo: 40 sig / 1 TD
Randy Brown
Francisco Trinaldo
56
Sig strikes landed
41
119
Sig strikes attempted
74
78
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
190s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
21-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
44
In our database
25 fights · 18-7
Last 5
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—