Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Yan Xiaonan
58%
42%
Why
63"
Reach
63"
30
Age
Δ 4y
33
17-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-6
W1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 5
Dern: 61 sig / 2 TD ·
Xiaonan: 113 sig / 0 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Yan Xiaonan
61
Sig strikes landed
60
143
Sig strikes attempted
125
108
Total strikes landed
86
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.4
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
214s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mackenzie Dern
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2
Yan Xiaonan
19-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—