Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Cody Durden
Carlos Mota
53%
47%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Durden: 17 sig / 4 TD ·
Mota: 12 sig / 0 TD
Cody Durden
Carlos Mota
32
Sig strikes landed
25
59
Sig strikes attempted
56
47
Total strikes landed
39
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
169s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
19-10-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
Carlos Mota
"Tizil"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28