Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Hooper
Steve Garcia
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
17-5-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-6
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hooper: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 29 sig / 0 TD
Chase Hooper
Steve Garcia
31
Sig strikes landed
29
59
Sig strikes attempted
60
54
Total strikes landed
48
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
192s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
17-5-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
L1
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
19-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—