Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Joseph Holmes
JunYong Park
47%
53%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 7"
73"
27
Age
Δ 4y
32
9-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-7
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Holmes: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Park: 18 sig / 2 TD
Joseph Holmes
JunYong Park
44
Sig strikes landed
41
95
Sig strikes attempted
74
54
Total strikes landed
70
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
51s
Control time
225s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joseph Holmes
"Uglyman Joe"
9-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
Blue corner
W1
JunYong Park
"The Iron Turtle"
20-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—