Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Roman Dolidze
49%
51%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
13-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
16-5
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hawes: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Dolidze: 18 sig / 0 TD
Phil Hawes
Roman Dolidze
36
Sig strikes landed
31
67
Sig strikes attempted
70
48
Total strikes landed
46
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
53s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
13-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W2
Roman Dolidze
16-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—