Prelims1
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
40%
60%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
44
Age
Δ 6y
37
35-24
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-11-1
W4
Current streak
L1
24
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Arlovski: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Rogerio de Lima: 6 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
29
Sig strikes landed
36
49
Sig strikes attempted
70
45
Total strikes landed
50
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
24 fights · 13-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
L1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
22-11-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—