Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Max Griffin
73%
27%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
39
Age
Δ 2y
37
33-18-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-14
L1
Current streak
L1
25
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Means: 47 sig / 3 TD ·
Griffin: 42 sig / 3 TD
Tim Means
Max Griffin
62
Sig strikes landed
62
137
Sig strikes attempted
128
82
Total strikes landed
75
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
93s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
25 fights · 14-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
Blue corner
L1
Max Griffin
"Pain"
20-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—