Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Jared Vanderaa
81%
19%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
—
Current streak
L4
0
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cortes Acosta: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Vanderaa: 56 sig / 0 TD
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Jared Vanderaa
49
Sig strikes landed
44
109
Sig strikes attempted
93
68
Total strikes landed
54
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Waldo Cortes Acosta
"Salsa Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L4
Jared Vanderaa
12-11
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 1-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
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L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—