Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Calvin Kattar
Arnold Allen
40%
60%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
23-11
Career record
Δ 17 pp
22-4
L1
Current streak
W8
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Kattar: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Allen: 28 sig / 0 TD
Calvin Kattar
Arnold Allen
54
Sig strikes landed
70
131
Sig strikes attempted
156
66
Total strikes landed
81
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
30s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Calvin Kattar
23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W8
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—