Prelims1
Featherweight
Joanderson Brito vs Lucas Alexander
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joanderson Brito
Lucas Alexander
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
28
Age
Δ 0y
27
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Brito: 4 sig / 2 TD ·
Alexander: 1 sig / 0 TD
Joanderson Brito
Lucas Alexander
33
Sig strikes landed
30
69
Sig strikes attempted
67
53
Total strikes landed
39
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
215s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joanderson Brito
"Tubarao"
19-5-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
Blue corner
Lucas Alexander
"The Lion"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27