Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mana Martinez
Brandon Davis
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 6y
32
10-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-11
L1
Current streak
L3
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Martinez: 87 sig / 1 TD ·
Davis: 76 sig / 1 TD
Mana Martinez
Brandon Davis
61
Sig strikes landed
54
127
Sig strikes attempted
138
66
Total strikes landed
68
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
20s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mana Martinez
"ManaBoi"
10-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
Blue corner
L3
Brandon Davis
"Killer B"
14-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 2-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—