Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Jonathan Martinez
50%
50%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
39
Age
Δ 10y
28
32-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-6
W1
Current streak
W3
21
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Swanson: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Martinez: 62 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Jonathan Martinez
72
Sig strikes landed
73
143
Sig strikes attempted
156
81
Total strikes landed
83
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
60s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
21 fights · 13-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
W3
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
20-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—