Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexa Grasso
Viviane Araujo
77%
23%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
18-5-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-7
W3
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Grasso: 153 sig / 0 TD ·
Araujo: 126 sig / 2 TD
Alexa Grasso
Viviane Araujo
76
Sig strikes landed
58
165
Sig strikes attempted
139
104
Total strikes landed
75
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
125s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Alexa Grasso
18-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
Blue corner
W1
Viviane Araujo
"Vivi"
14-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—