Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tatsuro Taira
CJ Vergara
90%
10%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
23
Age
Δ 9y
31
19-2
Career record
Δ 29 pp
13-7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Taira: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Vergara: 19 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuro Taira
CJ Vergara
62
Sig strikes landed
40
128
Sig strikes attempted
80
90
Total strikes landed
42
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
242s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tatsuro Taira
"The Best"
19-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
CJ Vergara
13-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—