Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Jackson
Pete Rodriguez
30%
70%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
2-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
5-3
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jackson: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Rodriguez: 22 sig / 0 TD
Mike Jackson
Pete Rodriguez
32
Sig strikes landed
28
53
Sig strikes attempted
58
57
Total strikes landed
43
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.70
107s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Jackson
"The Truth"
2-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
Blue corner
L1
Pete Rodriguez
"Dead Game"
5-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—