Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Victor Henry
37%
63%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
40
Age
Δ 5y
35
28-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
26-7
L4
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Assuncao: 60 sig / 2 TD ·
Henry: 55 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Victor Henry
63
Sig strikes landed
41
124
Sig strikes attempted
96
81
Total strikes landed
98
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Raphael Assuncao
28-11
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
Blue corner
W1
Victor Henry
"La Mangosta"
26-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—