Prelims2
Bantamweight
Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Julio Arce
Montel Jackson
53%
47%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
20-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-4
W1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arce: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Jackson: 48 sig / 0 TD
Julio Arce
Montel Jackson
44
Sig strikes landed
47
106
Sig strikes attempted
116
64
Total strikes landed
62
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
91s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Julio Arce
20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Montel Jackson
"Quik"
16-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—