Main
Bantamweight
Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutierrez
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Chris Gutierrez
37%
63%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
41
Age
Δ 10y
32
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-7-2
L2
Current streak
W3
22
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Edgar: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Gutierrez: 10 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Edgar
Chris Gutierrez
50
Sig strikes landed
73
114
Sig strikes attempted
138
66
Total strikes landed
86
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.7
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
143s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
22 fights · 12-9
Last 5
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
Blue corner
W3
Chris Gutierrez
"El Guapo"
23-7-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—