Main
Lightweight
Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Michael Chandler
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
30-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-10
L1
Current streak
W1
27
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Poirier: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Chandler: 43 sig / 3 TD
Dustin Poirier
Michael Chandler
67
Sig strikes landed
44
101
Sig strikes attempted
105
89
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
27 fights · 20-6
Last 5
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
24-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—