🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Zhang Weili
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Zhang Weili
33%
67%
Why
63"
Reach
63"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
21-8
Career record
Δ 15 pp
27-4
W6
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Esparza: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Weili: 37 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Zhang Weili
34
Sig strikes landed
62
87
Sig strikes attempted
112
69
Total strikes landed
95
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
6.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
231s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Zhang Weili
"Magnum"
27-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—