Prelims1
Lightweight
Brad Riddell vs Renato Moicano
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brad Riddell
Renato Moicano
40%
60%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
Δ 2y
34
10-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-8-1
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Riddell: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Moicano: 10 sig / 0 TD
Brad Riddell
Renato Moicano
51
Sig strikes landed
63
104
Sig strikes attempted
133
62
Total strikes landed
73
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
56s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brad Riddell
"Quake"
10-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Renato Moicano
21-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—