Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Dominick Reyes
Ryan Spann
48%
52%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
16-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
25-11
L3
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Reyes: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Spann: 8 sig / 0 TD
Dominick Reyes
Ryan Spann
33
Sig strikes landed
32
64
Sig strikes attempted
76
43
Total strikes landed
41
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
69s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
16-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
25-11
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—