Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield vs Molly McCann
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Erin Blanchfield
Molly McCann
86%
14%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
62"
24
Age
Δ 9y
32
15-2
Career record
Δ 23 pp
15-8
W3
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Blanchfield: 25 sig / 1 TD ·
McCann: 7 sig / 0 TD
Erin Blanchfield
Molly McCann
64
Sig strikes landed
48
124
Sig strikes attempted
108
96
Total strikes landed
62
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
274s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Erin Blanchfield
"Cold Blooded"
15-2
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
Blue corner
W3
Molly McCann
"Meatball"
15-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—