Prelims2
Lightweight
Matt Frevola vs Ottman Azaitar
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matt Frevola
Ottman Azaitar
39%
61%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
32
Age
Δ 0y
33
12-6-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
14-3
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Frevola: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Azaitar: 10 sig / 0 TD
Matt Frevola
Ottman Azaitar
17
Sig strikes landed
24
35
Sig strikes attempted
47
22
Total strikes landed
35
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
12-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Ottman Azaitar
"Bulldozer"
14-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—