🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Alex Pereira
79%
21%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
25-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-3
W3
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Adesanya: 86 sig / 1 TD ·
Pereira: 91 sig / 1 TD
Israel Adesanya
Alex Pereira
71
Sig strikes landed
65
140
Sig strikes attempted
131
67
Total strikes landed
71
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
0.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
85s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 12-1
Last 5
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
Blue corner
W3
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
14-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—