Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Khamzat Chimaev
Kevin Holland
61%
39%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
28
Age
Δ 1y
30
16-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
30-15
W5
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chimaev: 0 sig / 2 TD ·
Holland: 0 sig / 0 TD
Khamzat Chimaev
Kevin Holland
43
Sig strikes landed
41
84
Sig strikes attempted
95
57
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.2
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
189s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
16-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
W2
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
15 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—