Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Tony Ferguson
49%
51%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
37
Age
Δ 1y
39
22-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
26-12
L2
Current streak
L4
18
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Diaz: 101 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferguson: 80 sig / 1 TD
Nate Diaz
Tony Ferguson
82
Sig strikes landed
78
165
Sig strikes attempted
156
101
Total strikes landed
88
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
117s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nate Diaz
22-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L4
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
20 fights · 15-5
Last 5
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—