Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Hakeem Dawodu
Julian Erosa
39%
61%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
14-4-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
32-14
W1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dawodu: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Erosa: 92 sig / 2 TD
Hakeem Dawodu
Julian Erosa
61
Sig strikes landed
64
127
Sig strikes attempted
146
76
Total strikes landed
81
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
96s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Hakeem Dawodu
"Mean"
14-4-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
Blue corner
W2
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
32-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—