Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jailton Almeida
Anton Turkalj
78%
22%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Almeida: 17 sig / 3 TD ·
Turkalj: 1 sig / 0 TD
Jailton Almeida
Anton Turkalj
29
Sig strikes landed
14
54
Sig strikes attempted
37
51
Total strikes landed
21
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
281s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
23-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
Anton Turkalj
"The Pleasure Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26