Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Irene Aldana
Macy Chiasson
54%
46%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
16-8
Career record
Δ 0 pp
12-6
W1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Aldana: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Chiasson: 39 sig / 3 TD
Irene Aldana
Macy Chiasson
58
Sig strikes landed
61
141
Sig strikes attempted
158
70
Total strikes landed
86
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.5
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
87s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Irene Aldana
16-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Macy Chiasson
12-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—