Back to UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Melissa Martinez vs Elise Reed

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Melissa Martinez
Elise Reed
69% 31%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
63"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Martinez: 45 sig / 1 TD · Reed: 38 sig / 3 TD
Melissa Martinez
Elise Reed
39
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
65
69
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
218s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Melissa Martinez

"Super Mely"
0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner
L1

Elise Reed

8-6
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
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