Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chad Anheliger
Alatengheili
51%
49%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
14-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-10-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Anheliger: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Alatengheili: 49 sig / 2 TD
Chad Anheliger
Alatengheili
49
Sig strikes landed
49
104
Sig strikes attempted
131
62
Total strikes landed
57
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
71s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chad Anheliger
"The Monster"
14-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W1
Alatengheili
"The Mongolian Knight"
18-10-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—