Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rafael Estevam
Joao Elias
62%
38%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Estevam: 48 sig / 2 TD ·
Elias: 3 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Estevam
Joao Elias
37
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
65
51
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rafael Estevam
"Macapa"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Joao Elias
"Alicate"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28