Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ashiek Ajim
Mateus Mendonca
42%
58%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 5y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ajim: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Mendonca: 9 sig / 0 TD
Ashiek Ajim
Mateus Mendonca
34
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
76
47
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
119s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ashiek Ajim
"Peak Physique"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
Blue corner
Mateus Mendonca
"Bocao"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24