Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Patterson
Vinicius Cenci
74%
26%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
26
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Patterson: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Cenci: 27 sig / 1 TD
Sam Patterson
Vinicius Cenci
39
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
70
56
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sam Patterson
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Vinicius Cenci
"Chambinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27