Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bo Nickal
Donovan Beard
71%
29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nickal: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Beard: 0 sig / 0 TD
Bo Nickal
Donovan Beard
21
Sig strikes landed
16
45
Sig strikes attempted
33
37
Total strikes landed
28
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
180s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bo Nickal
9-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 6.3
—
Blue corner
Donovan Beard
"The Highlight Reel"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33