Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nurullo Aliev
Josh Wick
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
22
Age
Δ 6y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aliev: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Wick: 3 sig / 0 TD
Nurullo Aliev
Josh Wick
40
Sig strikes landed
35
81
Sig strikes attempted
71
80
Total strikes landed
49
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
Josh Wick
"The White Mamba"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
28