Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ikram Aliskerov
Mario Sousa
58%
42%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Aliskerov: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Sousa: 17 sig / 0 TD
Ikram Aliskerov
Mario Sousa
35
Sig strikes landed
34
65
Sig strikes attempted
70
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ikram Aliskerov
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
L1
Mario Sousa
"Coracao Valente"
15-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
DWCS 5.2
—
W
DWCS 4.9
—